Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.618123 1.694814 1.775035 1.865541 1.965228 2.072159 2.196185
2026-01-18 1.530636 1.632987 1.743974 1.874262 2.024355 2.193542 2.401201
2026-01-25 1.441749 1.557103 1.685263 1.839925 2.023947 2.239225 2.515426
2026-02-01 1.384110 1.510117 1.652996 1.829560 2.045717 2.307277 2.657221
2026-02-08 1.334249 1.467805 1.621800 1.815920 2.059451 2.363040 2.785061
2026-02-15 1.290260 1.429277 1.591847 1.800303 2.067472 2.409543 2.902213
2026-02-22 1.262015 1.407541 1.580122 1.805242 2.100163 2.488493 3.069672
2026-03-01 1.216472 1.362630 1.537518 1.768193 2.074777 2.486117 3.118250
2026-03-08 1.180732 1.328183 1.506171 1.743525 2.063566 2.501242 3.192634
2026-03-15 1.152344 1.301643 1.483428 1.728517 2.063838 2.531505 3.292014
2026-03-22 1.143607 1.299028 1.490502 1.752562 2.118452 2.643180 3.533492
2026-03-29 1.140039 1.302529 1.505184 1.787000 2.189176 2.783997 3.843690
2026-04-05 1.119349 1.284112 1.491387 1.782918 2.205604 2.845200 4.028172
2026-04-12 1.102813 1.270401 1.483101 1.785792 2.232003 2.923860 4.257536
2026-04-19 1.073058 1.238696 1.449857 1.752149 2.201574 2.907305 4.298111
2026-04-26 1.053823 1.220135 1.433523 1.741648 2.205485 2.947688 4.460297
2026-05-03 1.034759 1.201253 1.416097 1.728740 2.204721 2.979670 4.609970
2026-05-10 1.016127 1.182440 1.398161 1.714289 2.200572 3.005111 4.749555
2026-05-17 1.005315 1.173621 1.393449 1.718687 2.226126 3.084698 5.028992
2026-05-24 0.981458 1.146912 1.363484 1.684863 2.188528 3.046833 5.018343
2026-05-31 0.962508 1.126396 1.341592 1.662321 2.168269 3.039611 5.084081
2026-06-07 0.947390 1.110702 1.325984 1.648598 2.161734 3.057410 5.217868
2026-06-14 0.945080 1.112116 1.334101 1.670560 2.215102 3.193354 5.702544